A New Flu Pandemic Threat - the H5N1 Virus
Flu pandemics occur on a relatively predictable ratio of 3 per century, as the flu virus has “pattern cycles” which last around 40 years. For that period of 40 years, the virus will slowly evolve into newer strains, however when the pattern cycle is over, it will form an almost radically different strain of the virus, which is harder to combat by the body and easier to transmit. Since the last great pandemic was the 1957-1958 Asian Flu (there were a couple of other epidemics after that, however they were quickly quelled and did not reach the status of a pandemic) it is predicted that we are on the brink of a new flu pandemic threat. This theory has been confirmed in 1997, when bird flu triggered a shockwave in the scientific community as the disease killed thousands of flocks of birds all over the world and infected several humans.
It must be noted that the H5N1 virus is not yet capable of starting a new pandemic. In order for a virus to be a pandemic threat, it needs to fulfill three conditions: it needs to have the properties to cause a lethal condition, it needs to have an efficient way of passing from the carrier (birds in this case) to humans and it needs to have a quick way of spreading from human to human. At this point, the H5N1 virus only fully completes the first condition, of being deadly to humans.
The virus itself is not deadly, however it can cause several other conditions that are highly dangerous. The most common one produced by the H5N1 virus is the SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome. This syndrome blocks air paths and affects the lungs quickly after the body has been infected and is in most cases lethal. If found on time, SARS can be treated but in most cases, the infected person will not realize he has the syndrome until it is too late.
The second condition, of the virus being transmittable from the carrier to a human being is not yet entirely fulfilled by the H5N1. Although the first few cases of bird flu in humans have been reported as early as 1997, the total number of documented cases remains under 300 on a world scale. The number itself is not alarming, however the rate with which the infections increased with each flu season is. Whereas in 2004 only 25 cases were documented, by January 2005 the 100 mark was hit. By April 2006 200 cases were reported and this summer the 250 mark was hit.
Lastly, the final condition for triggering a new flu pandemic is also not entirely complete. The H5N1 virus cannot transmit itself from human to human with ease and until a few years ago it was considered impossible for the virus to do so. And although only a handful of human-to-human spread cases are documented, it is alarming that the virus found a way to do so.
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